Capital Program Planning for California Electric Utilities

by | Oct 21, 2026

California · Electric & Grid Utilities

California's grid must add roughly 150 GW of clean capacity by 2045. Your capital plan is where that happens.

Record load, the nation's second-highest rates, wildfire hardening, and a 100%-clean-by-2045 mandate are all pulling on the same budget at once. Every new data center, undergrounding mile, and storage project competes for the same capital and the same crews. Invizion helps electric utilities re-sequence a capital portfolio in a click — and defend every decision to the CPUC or a governing board.

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The bottom line: California is rebuilding its grid at record speed — 15,763 MW of new storage, a 100%-clean-by-2045 mandate, and the nation's second-highest rates all at once. The utilities that keep the lights on will be the ones whose capital plans can re-sequence as fast as the mandates and load forecasts change.
52,061 MW1
CAISO's all-time record peak demand, set during the September 2022 heatwave.
+1,944%2
Growth in California's battery storage since 2019 — now 15,763 MW online.
$65B3
Sempra's 2026–2030 capital plan, 95% aimed at its California and Texas utilities.
27.04¢/kWh4
California's average retail electricity price — second-highest in the nation.

The California Landscape

Four forces are moving your project list at once

None of these is theoretical, and none of them waits for your next budget cycle. Together they mean the capital plan you approved last year may already be the wrong plan.

Demand — Load Growth

New load is stacking up faster than the grid was built for

CAISO already set an all-time peak of 52,061 MW in the September 2022 heatwave and manages roughly 80% of the state's electric flow.1 Now data centers, transportation, and building electrification are pushing demand higher — CAISO's 2025–2026 transmission plan added 38 infrastructure upgrades specifically to meet growing electricity demand.5

California already moves about 245 million MWh of retail sales a year;4 every large new interconnection is a capacity commitment competing for the same capital.

Reliability — Peaks & Heat

Keeping the lights on now runs on storage

Battery storage has gone from 770 MW in 2019 to 15,763 MW today — a 1,944% jump — and it is now what carries California through the evening ramp and extreme-heat events.2

That fleet is part of why 2023 statewide generation actually dipped as rooftop solar and storage reshaped the load curve, with non-carbon sources supplying 58% of generation.6 Reliability now depends on those assets landing on schedule.

Generation — The Transition

100% clean by 2045, on a capital clock

SB 100 requires 60% renewable electricity by 2030 and 100% clean by 2045, which the state estimates means growing generating capacity from about 35,000 MW in 2022 to roughly 73,000 MW by 2030 and 183,000 MW by 2045.7

Diablo Canyon — 2,256 MW and about 8.6% of California generation — had its retirement pushed to 2030 to hold the line while that buildout catches up.8 Natural gas still supplied 36.6% of 2023 generation and solar 17.0%,6 so the transition is a decade of overlapping build-and-retire decisions.

Capital — Grid & Wildfire

Harden, modernize, and grow — all at once

The dollars are enormous. Sempra alone plans about $65 billion of capital over 2026–2030, most of it at its California and Texas utilities,3 while PG&E is burying 10,000 miles of distribution line at roughly $4 million per mile — a program it has worked to bring from a ~$40 billion price tag toward $15–20 billion.9

Wildfire liability sits on top: Southern California Edison paid more than $2.7 billion for the Thomas Fire and $2.2 billion for Woolsey, and won a 2025 rate increase to recover $1.6 billion of it.10 New obligations don't replace the backlog — they stack on it.

Who Runs California's Grid

Three big investor-owned utilities and the deepest public-power bench in the country

California's grid is carried by three CPUC-regulated investor-owned utilities plus a large set of municipal utilities and irrigation districts. The pressures are shared statewide; the accountability path differs.

Investor-owned utilities

Rates & capital recovery regulated by the CPUC

Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) ~5.5M electric customers · ~16M people, central & northern California9
Southern California Edison (SCE) ~15M people · ~50,000 sq mi (Edison International)10
San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) 3.7M consumers · 1.49M electric meters (Sempra)11

Sempra's 2026–2030 capital plan runs about $65 billion, most of it at its California and Texas utilities.3

Public power & cooperatives

Governed by boards & members, not CPUC rates

LA Dept. of Water & Power (LADWP) Largest U.S. municipal utility · city-governed
Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) Sacramento region · elected board
Imperial Irrigation District (IID) Imperial Valley · public power
Rural electric cooperatives Anza, Plumas-Sierra, Trinity & others

Rate-Setting & Oversight

Every capital dollar has to be defensible

Whether you answer to the CPUC or a governing board, the question is the same: why this project, why now, why at this cost?

  • California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) regulates rates, capital recovery, and resource plans for PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E through general rate cases and cost-of-capital proceedings.12
  • Wildfire cost recovery is contested. SCE won a 2025 rate increase to recover $1.6 billion of Thomas Fire payments — prudency and cost-recovery approvals are not a formality.10
  • The nation's second-highest rates. California averages 27.04¢/kWh, so every rate-base addition draws affordability scrutiny.4
  • Public power sets its own rates. LADWP, SMUD, and the irrigation districts answer to boards and councils, not the CPUC — capital decisions made in front of customers.

Funding On The Table

Federal and state dollars are moving — can your plan absorb them?

California utilities have more grid capital in play than in a generation. The constraint is readiness: which projects qualify, which are shovel-ready, and how the timing lines up.

  • DOE Civil Nuclear Credit: $1.1B to keep Diablo Canyon running past its original 2024–2025 retirement dates.8
  • State of California: a $1.4B loan to support the Diablo Canyon extension under SB 846.8
  • CAISO 2025–2026 transmission plan: $160M+ of reliability-driven projects for SDG&E alone.3
  • DOE GRIP: $7.6B across 105 projects nationwide — California utilities compete for grid-resilience and undergrounding dollars in the same program.13
  • IRA clean-energy tax credits — investment and production credits plus direct pay put utility-scale solar and storage in reach for public power and cooperatives.

Where Invizion Fits

Turn California's grid build-out into a defensible capital plan

Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization built for utilities. When load forecasts jump, a grant lands, or a retirement date moves, you don't re-plan by hand for weeks — you model it and decide with a record to stand behind.

1

Model the “what-if” before it's forced on you

A data-center interconnect, a delayed transmission line, a moved retirement date — build the scenario and see the impact on the whole portfolio, side by side with today's plan.

2

Re-sequence 500 projects in a click

When priorities move, Invizion re-orders the portfolio automatically — accelerating, stretching, or deferring projects against the constraints you set, not weeks of spreadsheet surgery.

3

Give regulators or your board a defensible record

Every prioritization and trade-off is captured. When you're asked “why this project, why now,” the answer is documented — not reconstructed after the fact.

California's Grid, In Brief

Questions California utility leaders are asking

Short, sourced answers — the same facts we dig into with utilities looking at their capital programs.

How fast is California's electricity demand growing?
After setting an all-time peak of 52,061 MW in 2022,1 California faces new load from data centers, EVs, and building electrification — CAISO added 38 transmission upgrades in its 2025–2026 plan specifically to meet growing demand.5
What's happening with Diablo Canyon?
California's last nuclear plant — 2,256 MW, about 8.6% of state generation — had its retirement extended to 2030 under SB 846, backed by a $1.1 billion federal Civil Nuclear Credit and a $1.4 billion state loan.8
Why are California's electricity rates so high?
California averages 27.04¢/kWh, the second-highest of any state, as wildfire hardening and clean-energy buildout land in rate base.4 The CPUC reviews those costs for PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E.12
How much battery storage does California have?
About 15,763 MW as of 2025 — up 1,944% from 770 MW in 2019 — now central to riding through the evening ramp and heat events.2
What clean-energy targets must California utilities hit?
SB 100 requires 60% renewable electricity by 2030 and 100% clean electricity by 2045, which the state estimates means growing capacity from about 35,000 MW to roughly 183,000 MW.7
How does Invizion help California electric utilities plan capital?
Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization for utilities. It lets you model how a load surge, a grant, a wildfire-hardening mandate, or a retirement date reshuffles your whole project list, re-sequence the portfolio automatically, and keep a defensible record of every decision for the CPUC or your governing board.

Go Deeper

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A 3-minute look at scenario optimization on a 500-project portfolio.

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About the Author

GB

Guy Barlow

President, Invizion

Guy Barlow leads Invizion, a capital lifecycle management platform for water and wastewater utilities. He has spent two decades at the intersection of utility capital programs, funding, and analytics, helping utilities make faster, more defensible capital decisions.

Explore Further

See how utilities keep capital plans defensible

Invizion helps utilities model, optimize, and defend their capital programs. Explore how it works, or read our latest thinking on capital planning across the utility sector.

Explore Invizion

This briefing was last reviewed September 2026.

Sources

  1. California ISO / Wikipedia — CAISO all-time peak 52,061 MW (Sept. 6, 2022); manages ~80% of California's electric flow. en.wikipedia.org
  2. Office of Governor Gavin Newsom — California battery storage 15,763 MW, up 1,944% since 2019 (from 770 MW), May 2025. www.gov.ca.gov
  3. Sempra Newsroom — record 2026–2030 capital plan ~$65B (95% to California and Texas utilities); CAISO 2025–2026 plan >$160M reliability projects for SDG&E. www.sempra.com
  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration — California Electricity Profile: 27.04¢/kWh average retail price (2nd nationally); ~245.7M MWh retail sales, 2024. www.eia.gov
  5. California ISO — 2025–2026 transmission plan / draft recommends 38 infrastructure upgrades to meet growing electricity demand, 2026. www.caiso.com
  6. California Energy Commission — 2023 Total System Electric Generation: 281 TWh; natural gas 36.6%, solar 17.0%, non-CO2 sources 58%. www.energy.ca.gov
  7. California Energy Commission — SB 100: 60% renewable by 2030, 100% clean by 2045; capacity ~35,000 MW (2022) to ~73,000 MW (2030) and ~183,000 MW (2045). www.energy.ca.gov
  8. Diablo Canyon Power Plant / Wikipedia — 2,256 MW, ~8.6% of California generation; SB 846 extension to 2030; DOE Civil Nuclear Credit $1.1B; $1.4B state loan. en.wikipedia.org
  9. Pacific Gas and Electric Company / Wikipedia — ~5.5M electric customers / ~16M people; 10,000-mile undergrounding plan at ~$4M/mile (~$40B, targeted toward $15–20B). en.wikipedia.org
  10. Southern California Edison / Wikipedia — ~15M people, ~50,000 sq mi; Thomas Fire settlements >$2.7B, Woolsey $2.2B; 2025 rate increase to recover $1.6B. en.wikipedia.org
  11. San Diego Gas & Electric / Wikipedia — 3.7M consumers, 1.49M electric meters, 4,100 sq mi (Sempra). en.wikipedia.org
  12. California Public Utilities Commission / Wikipedia — regulates rates and resource plans for PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E. en.wikipedia.org
  13. U.S. Department of Energy, Grid Deployment Office — GRIP program: $7.6B across 105 projects in all 50 states. www.energy.gov