Capital Program Planning for North Carolina Electric Utilities

by | Oct 21, 2026

North Carolina · Electric & Grid Utilities

North Carolina's load forecast nearly doubled. Your capital plan is where that lands.

Data centers and new manufacturing are stacking demand onto the Carolinas grid faster than any plan on the books anticipated, while coal retires, gas and solar build out, and the state's 2030 carbon deadline falls away. Each of those forces reshuffles the projects on your list. Invizion helps electric utilities re-sequence a capital portfolio in a click — and defend every decision.

See how Invizion helps utilities See what North Carolina utilities face Download the briefing (PDF)
The bottom line: North Carolina's power demand is climbing faster than any forecast on the books — data centers and manufacturing have roughly doubled Duke's Carolinas load projections while coal retires and the interim 2030 carbon deadline falls away. The utilities that stay defensible will be the ones whose capital plans can re-sequence as fast as the load forecast moves.
~2×1
How much Duke roughly raised its Carolinas load-growth forecast in its Carbon Plan update, driven by data centers and manufacturing.
8,000+ MW2
Remaining coal capacity the state's Carbon Plan directs Duke to retire by 2036.
~$83B3
Duke Energy's enterprise-wide five-year capital plan (2025–2029).
36,337 MW4
North Carolina's net summer generating capacity — 8th largest in the nation.

The North Carolina Landscape

Four forces are moving your project list at once

None of these is theoretical, and none of them waits for your next budget cycle. Together they mean the capital plan you approved last year may already be the wrong plan.

Demand — Load Growth

Data centers rewrote the forecast

Duke Energy roughly doubled its Carolinas load-growth outlook in its Carbon Plan / Integrated Resource Plan update, citing a pipeline of large-load data centers and new manufacturing that its earlier plans never assumed.1

North Carolina already generates the 9th-most electricity of any state;4 every gigawatt-scale customer that lands is a capacity commitment competing for the same capital and the same interconnection window.

Reliability — Peaks & Adequacy

Growing load against a winter-peaking grid

The Carolinas system is winter-peaking, and the resource additions in the Carbon Plan are sized to keep pace with demand that is now climbing far faster than in prior cycles.1

With about 36,337 MW of summer capacity and natural gas as the leading source of generation,4 reliability now hinges on new gas, solar, storage, and nuclear all landing on schedule.

Generation — The Transition

Coal out; gas, solar, storage and SMRs in

The Commission's Carbon Plan order directs Duke to retire more than 8,000 MW of coal by 2036 and add roughly 3,460 MW of solar and 1,100 MW of battery storage by 2031, 900 MW of combustion turbines by 2030, 2,720 MW of combined-cycle gas by 2031, and 300 MW of advanced nuclear (SMR) by 2034 with another 300 MW by 2035.2

The 2025 legislature's Power Bill Reduction Act (SB 266) repealed the interim 2030 target while keeping the 2050 carbon-neutrality goal,5 and solar already supplies roughly 9% of the state's electricity.6

Capital — Grid & Hardening

Build for growth, harden for storms

Duke's enterprise-wide five-year capital plan runs to about $83 billion,3 and a large share flows to the Carolinas grid it has spent years modernizing.7

Hurricane Helene's 2024 devastation across western North Carolina added a hard mandate: rebuild to a more resilient standard, not just restore. New obligations don't replace the backlog — they stack on top of it, and something on the list has to move.7

Who Runs North Carolina's Grid

Two Duke utilities, a smaller investor-owned utility, plus co-ops and public power

North Carolina's grid is carried overwhelmingly by Duke Energy's two Commission-regulated utilities, with Dominion in the northeast, member-owned electric cooperatives, and municipal public-power systems filling in the map. The pressures are shared; the accountability path differs.

Investor-owned utilities

Rates & capital recovery regulated by the NCUC

Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC) ~2.9M electric customers · NC & SC8
Duke Energy Progress (DEP) ~1.7M electric customers · NC & SC8
Dominion Energy North Carolina ~120,000 customers in northeastern NC9

Duke's two Carolinas utilities carry the large majority of North Carolina's load, and Duke's five-year capital plan runs to roughly $83 billion enterprise-wide.3

Cooperatives & public power

Governed by boards & members, not NCUC rates

North Carolina EMCs (via NCEMC) Wholesale power to 26 member cooperatives10
ElectriCities public-power systems Dozens of municipal electric systems statewide11
Municipal & distribution co-ops Boards & members set local rates

Co-ops and municipal systems make capital decisions in front of their boards and members — a different forum, the same defensibility test.

Rate-Setting & Oversight

Every capital dollar has to be defensible

Whether you answer to the Utilities Commission or a board of members, the question is the same: why this project, why now, why at this cost?

  • North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) regulates rates, capital recovery, and the biennial Carbon Plan / Integrated Resource Plan for the investor-owned utilities; it was reduced from seven commissioners to five in 2024.12
  • Multi-year rate plans (HB 951) let Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress recover capital across three-year plans with performance-based mechanisms, at authorized returns on equity near 10% — approvals are not a formality.13
  • The 2024 Carbon Plan order (Docket E-100 Sub 190) sets the resource path through 2035; Duke filed its next update, the 2025 CPIRP (E-100 Sub 207), on September 1, 2025.21
  • SB 266, the Power Bill Reduction Act (Session Law 2025-78), became law over the Governor's veto effective July 29, 2025 — repealing the interim 2030 carbon target, keeping the 2050 goal, and authorizing construction-work-in-progress cost recovery for new baseload generation.5

Funding On The Table

The money is moving — can your plan absorb it?

North Carolina utilities have more grid and clean-energy capital available than they've had in a generation. The constraint is readiness: which projects qualify, which are shovel-ready, and how the timing lines up.

  • USDA New ERA & DOE grid programs — federal clean-energy and grid-resilience funding is available to North Carolina's cooperatives and utilities for solar, storage, and hardening projects.14
  • IRA elective (direct) pay lets electric cooperatives and municipal public-power systems capture investment and production tax credits on utility-scale solar and storage — capital that used to require a tax-equity partner.14
  • CWIP cost recovery under SB 266 lets utilities begin recovering financing costs on new baseload and nuclear plants during construction — changing the cash-flow math on multi-year builds.5
  • Duke's ~$83B five-year capital plan is the internal engine most NC grid work rides on — the question is sequencing tens of billions against load, retirements, and storm rebuilding at once.3

Where Invizion Fits

Turn North Carolina's grid build-out into a defensible capital plan

Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization built for utilities. When load forecasts jump, a grant lands, or a retirement date moves, you don't re-plan by hand for weeks — you model it and decide with a record to stand behind.

1

Model the “what-if” before it's forced on you

A data-center interconnect, a delayed transmission line, a moved retirement date — build the scenario and see the impact on the whole portfolio, side by side with today's plan.

2

Re-sequence 500 projects in a click

When priorities move, Invizion re-orders the portfolio automatically — accelerating, stretching, or deferring projects against the constraints you set, not weeks of spreadsheet surgery.

3

Give regulators or your board a defensible record

Every prioritization and trade-off is captured. When you're asked “why this project, why now,” the answer is documented — not reconstructed after the fact.

North Carolina's Grid, In Brief

Questions North Carolina utility leaders are asking

Short, sourced answers — the same facts we dig into with utilities looking at their capital programs.

How fast is North Carolina's electricity demand growing?
Duke Energy roughly doubled its Carolinas load-growth forecast in its Carbon Plan / IRP update, driven by data centers and new manufacturing; North Carolina already ranks 9th nationally in electricity generation.14
What's happening to North Carolina's coal plants?
The Utilities Commission's Carbon Plan order directs Duke to retire more than 8,000 MW of remaining coal capacity by 2036, replacing it with gas, solar, storage, and advanced nuclear.2
Did North Carolina drop its 2030 carbon target?
Yes. SB 266, the Power Bill Reduction Act (Session Law 2025-78), became law over the Governor's veto in July 2025 and repealed the interim 2030 70% carbon-reduction target while keeping the 2050 carbon-neutrality goal.5
Does the Utilities Commission set my utility's rates?
The NCUC regulates rates, capital recovery, and the Carbon Plan / IRP for investor-owned utilities such as Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress, and Dominion. Electric cooperatives and municipal public-power systems are governed by their own boards and members.12
What new generation is Duke building in the Carolinas?
Under the Carbon Plan, roughly 3,460 MW of solar and 1,100 MW of battery storage by 2031, 900 MW of combustion turbines by 2030, 2,720 MW of combined-cycle gas by 2031, and 300 MW of advanced nuclear by 2034 with another 300 MW by 2035.2
How does Invizion help North Carolina electric utilities plan capital?
Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization for utilities. It lets you model how a data-center load surge, a retirement date, a grant, or a storm-rebuild mandate reshuffles your whole project list, re-sequence the portfolio automatically, and keep a defensible record of every decision for the NCUC or your board.

Go Deeper

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A 3-minute look at scenario optimization on a 500-project portfolio.

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About the Author

GB

Guy Barlow

President, Invizion

Guy Barlow leads Invizion, a capital lifecycle management platform for water and wastewater utilities. He has spent two decades at the intersection of utility capital programs, funding, and analytics, helping utilities make faster, more defensible capital decisions.

Explore Further

See how utilities keep capital plans defensible

Invizion helps utilities model, optimize, and defend their capital programs. Explore how it works, or read our latest thinking on capital planning across the utility sector.

Explore Invizion

This briefing was last reviewed September 2026.

Sources

  1. North Carolina Utilities Commission — Duke Energy 2025 Carbon Plan / Integrated Resource Plan, Docket E-100 Sub 207 (filed Sept. 1, 2025); load growth driven by data centers and manufacturing. www.ncuc.gov
  2. North Carolina Utilities Commission — Carbon Plan / IRP order, Docket E-100 Sub 190 (Nov. 1, 2024): retire 8,000+ MW coal by 2036; 3,460 MW solar & 1,100 MW storage by 2031; 900 MW CT by 2030; 2,720 MW combined-cycle by 2031; 300 MW advanced nuclear by 2034 (+300 MW by 2035); N.C.G.S. § 62-110.9. www.ncuc.gov
  3. Duke Energy — investor materials, ~$83 billion five-year capital plan (2025–2029), enterprise-wide. www.duke-energy.com
  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration — North Carolina electricity profile: 36,337 MW net summer capacity (8th); 134,965,396 MWh net generation (9th); 11.65¢/kWh average retail price; natural gas the leading generation source (2024). www.eia.gov
  5. North Carolina General Assembly — Senate Bill 266, the Power Bill Reduction Act (Session Law 2025-78); enacted over veto, effective July 29, 2025; repeals interim 2030 carbon target, retains 2050 neutrality goal, authorizes CWIP cost recovery. www.ncleg.gov
  6. Wikipedia — Energy in North Carolina: solar supplied about 9.3% of in-state electricity generation (2023), 4th nationally; state renewable portfolio standard of 12.5%. en.wikipedia.org
  7. Wikipedia — Duke Energy: headquartered in Charlotte, N.C.; serves 7M+ electric customers via Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress; multi-billion-dollar North Carolina grid modernization program. en.wikipedia.org
  8. Duke Energy — company profile: Duke Energy Carolinas ~2.9 million and Duke Energy Progress ~1.7 million electric customers across North Carolina and South Carolina. www.duke-energy.com
  9. Dominion Energy North Carolina — serves roughly 120,000 electric customers in northeastern North Carolina. www.dominionenergy.com
  10. North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation (NCEMC) — wholesale power supplier to 26 member distribution cooperatives serving communities statewide. www.ncemcs.com
  11. ElectriCities of North Carolina — represents dozens of municipal (public-power) electric systems, including NCEMPA and NCMPA1 members. www.electricities.com
  12. Wikipedia — North Carolina Utilities Commission: regulates electric, natural gas, water and sewer utilities and oversees the Carbon Plan/IRP; reduced from seven to five commissioners in 2024. en.wikipedia.org
  13. North Carolina Utilities Commission — HB 951 (2021) multi-year rate plans and performance-based regulation; Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress rate-case orders with authorized ROEs near 10%. www.ncuc.gov
  14. USDA New ERA program & U.S. Department of Energy grid programs / IRA elective pay — federal clean-energy and grid-resilience funding available to North Carolina cooperatives, public power, and utilities. www.rd.usda.gov