Capital Program Planning for Virginia Electric Utilities

by | Oct 21, 2026

Virginia · Electric & Grid Utilities

Virginia's power demand is set to double in a decade. Your capital plan is where that gets built.

The world's largest data-center market is stacking gigawatts of new load onto Dominion's grid, just as the Clean Economy Act pushes toward a 2045 carbon-free deadline and offshore wind adds a $10.7 billion program. Every one of those forces reshuffles the projects on your list. Invizion helps electric utilities re-sequence a capital portfolio in a click — and defend every decision.

See how Invizion helps utilities See what Virginia utilities face Download the briefing (PDF)
The bottom line: Virginia's grid has to roughly double in a decade to feed the world's largest data-center market while hitting a 2045 carbon-free mandate. The utilities that stay ahead will be the ones whose capital plans can re-sequence as fast as the load forecast moves.
2×1
Virginia's unconstrained power demand is expected to double within a decade — after running essentially flat from 2006 to 2020.
70%+2
Share of the world's internet traffic that flows through Loudoun County's “Data Center Alley.”
$10.7B3
Cost of the 2.6 GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project — the largest in the United States.
5.5%1
Annual load growth in Dominion's transmission zone, driven largely by data centers.

The Virginia Landscape

Four forces are moving your project list at once

None of these is theoretical, and none of them waits for your next budget cycle. Together they mean the capital plan you approved last year may already be the wrong plan.

Demand — Load Growth

The world's data-center capital, arriving on your grid

Dominion's transmission zone is growing about 5.5% a year, and JLARC's independent forecast finds Virginia's unconstrained power demand could double within a decade — after running essentially flat from 2006 to 2020.1

The driver is data centers: Virginia hosts more than 640 facilities and roughly 40% of the global market, with over 70% of the world's internet traffic crossing Loudoun's “Data Center Alley.”42 Every hyperscale campus is a multi-hundred-megawatt commitment competing for the same capital as Dominion serves its 2.5 million Virginia customers.5

Reliability — Resource Adequacy

Load growing faster than the grid can absorb

Meeting that load isn't only a generation problem. JLARC estimates the unconstrained forecast would need roughly 3,500 MW of new interzonal transmission and up to 73 TWh of imported energy a year to stay reliable through 2040.1

Virginia already generates about 103 million MWh a year, and the PJM system it sits inside is absorbing Mid-Atlantic load growth all at once — thinning the margin whenever projects slip.6

Generation — The Transition

A 2045 clean deadline, on a capital clock

The Virginia Clean Economy Act requires Dominion to be 100% carbon-free by 2045 and Appalachian Power by 2050 — the nation's first legally binding 100% clean-energy standard.7

That mandate is landing as a capital wave: the 2.6 GW, $10.7 billion Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project — three roughly 880 MW phases serving 650,000-plus customers13 and up to 660,000 homes' worth of power8 — plus the roughly 56,300 MW of new generation JLARC says the unconstrained forecast would require by 2040.31

Capital — Grid & Transmission

Build generation and the wires, at the same time

Offshore wind alone is a $10.7 billion program, up from an initial $9.8 billion after interconnection and export-cable cost increases.3 On top of generation, JLARC projects a typical Dominion household's grid-related costs could rise $14–$37 a month by 2040 as transmission builds out.1

Federal dollars help at the margin — DOE's GRIP program is sending up to $250 million to a TVA-led project spanning parts of Virginia — but the backlog stacks faster than the grants.12

Who Runs Virginia's Grid

Two big investor-owned utilities, a large cooperative sector, and municipals

Virginia's grid is carried by two SCC-regulated investor-owned utilities, a wholesale generation-and-transmission cooperative and its distribution members, and a set of city-owned systems. The pressures are shared; the accountability path differs.

Investor-owned utilities

Rates & capital recovery regulated by the SCC

Dominion Energy Virginia More than 2.5M customers in Virginia5
Appalachian Power (AEP) ~1.1M customers across VA / WV / TN; ~8,750 MW generation9
Old Dominion Power (Kentucky Utilities / PPL) Small IOU serving far southwest Virginia

Dominion's flagship capital program includes the $10.7 billion Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project.3

Cooperatives & municipal power

Governed by boards & members, not SCC base rates

Old Dominion Electric Cooperative (ODEC) Wholesale G&T for 11 member coops · ~1.5M people (VA/MD/DE)10
Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative (NOVEC) Serves the fast-growing Northern Virginia data-center corridor
Rappahannock, BARC & other distribution coops Member-governed distribution cooperatives
Municipal systems (Danville, Manassas, Bristol, Harrisonburg) City-owned electric utilities

Rate-Setting & Oversight

Every capital dollar has to be defensible

Whether you answer to the State Corporation Commission or a member board, the question is the same: why this project, why now, why at this cost?

  • State Corporation Commission (SCC) regulates base rates, capital recovery, and Integrated Resource Plans for Dominion Energy Virginia and Appalachian Power.11
  • 2023 rate-review reform (SB 1265 / HB 1770) restructured Dominion's oversight — following the 2015 SB 1349 freeze that had blocked the SCC from reviewing base rates until 2021 — moving the utility back toward regular biennial reviews.11
  • VCEA-driven IRPs require Dominion (100% carbon-free by 2045) and Appalachian Power (by 2050) to file resource plans aligned with the state's clean-energy mandate.7
  • Appalachian Power, an AEP subsidiary serving about 1.1 million customers, files its own rate cases and resource plan with the SCC.9

Funding On The Table

The money is moving — can your plan absorb it?

Virginia utilities have more grid capital in motion than in a generation. The constraint is readiness: which projects qualify, which are shovel-ready, and how the timing lines up against a decade of load growth.

  • Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind — $10.7B VCEA-driven capital program for 2.6 GW across 176 turbines, in service around 2026–2027, with an estimated $3 billion in first-decade fuel savings.38
  • DOE GRIP — up to $250M (TVA-led) grid-resilience funding spanning parts of Virginia and seven other states.12
  • IRA direct-pay tax credits put utility-scale solar and storage in reach for public power and cooperatives such as ODEC and NOVEC.
  • Data-center sales-tax exemption — $928M (FY23) in state savings underscores the scale of the load reshaping capital plans, and the cost-allocation debate behind every new line.1

Where Invizion Fits

Turn Virginia's grid build-out into a defensible capital plan

Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization built for utilities. When load forecasts jump, a grant lands, or a retirement date moves, you don't re-plan by hand for weeks — you model it and decide with a record to stand behind.

1

Model the “what-if” before it's forced on you

A data-center interconnect, a delayed transmission line, a moved retirement date — build the scenario and see the impact on the whole portfolio, side by side with today's plan.

2

Re-sequence 500 projects in a click

When priorities move, Invizion re-orders the portfolio automatically — accelerating, stretching, or deferring projects against the constraints you set, not weeks of spreadsheet surgery.

3

Give regulators or your board a defensible record

Every prioritization and trade-off is captured. When you're asked “why this project, why now,” the answer is documented — not reconstructed after the fact.

Virginia's Grid, In Brief

Questions Virginia utility leaders are asking

Short, sourced answers — the same facts we dig into with utilities looking at their capital programs.

How fast is Virginia's electricity demand growing?
JLARC's independent forecast finds Virginia's unconstrained power demand could double within a decade, with Dominion's transmission zone already growing about 5.5% a year — a reversal after demand ran flat from 2006 to 2020. Data centers, roughly 40% of the global market, are the main driver.14
Why is Virginia the center of data-center growth?
Northern Virginia holds the world's largest concentration of data centers — over 70% of the world's internet traffic flows through Loudoun's “Data Center Alley,” and Virginia hosts more than 640 facilities statewide.24
What is the Virginia Clean Economy Act?
The 2020 VCEA is the nation's first legally binding 100% clean-energy standard. It requires Dominion Energy Virginia to be 100% carbon-free by 2045 and Appalachian Power by 2050.7
What is Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind?
Dominion's 2.6 GW, 176-turbine offshore wind project — the largest in the U.S. — is expected to power up to 660,000 homes, in service around 2026–2027, at a cost of $10.7 billion.38
Who regulates Virginia electric utilities' rates?
The State Corporation Commission regulates base rates and resource plans for Dominion Energy Virginia and Appalachian Power. A 2023 reform (SB 1265 / HB 1770) restructured Dominion's oversight after the 2015 freeze that had suspended SCC base-rate reviews until 2021. Cooperatives such as ODEC and NOVEC are governed by member boards.1110
How does Invizion help Virginia electric utilities plan capital?
Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization for utilities. It lets you model how a data-center load surge, an offshore-wind cost increase, a grant, or a VCEA milestone reshuffles your whole project list, re-sequence the portfolio automatically, and keep a defensible record of every decision for the SCC or your board.

Go Deeper

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About the Author

GB

Guy Barlow

President, Invizion

Guy Barlow leads Invizion, a capital lifecycle management platform for water and wastewater utilities. He has spent two decades at the intersection of utility capital programs, funding, and analytics, helping utilities make faster, more defensible capital decisions.

Explore Further

See how utilities keep capital plans defensible

Invizion helps utilities model, optimize, and defend their capital programs. Explore how it works, or read our latest thinking on capital planning across the utility sector.

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This briefing was last reviewed September 2026.

Sources

  1. JLARC — Data Centers in Virginia (2024): unconstrained demand to double within 10 years, 5.5% growth in Dominion's zone, ~56,300 MW / 3,500 MW transmission needed by 2040, $14–$37/mo cost impact, $928M FY23 tax exemption. jlarc.virginia.gov
  2. Loudoun County Economic Development — “Data Center Alley”: more than 70% of the world's internet traffic flows through Loudoun's networks. biz.loudoun.gov
  3. Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (Wikipedia) — $10.7B (Jan 2025, up from $9.8B), 2.6 GW, 176 Siemens Gamesa turbines, in service ~2026–2027. en.wikipedia.org
  4. Data center (Wikipedia) — Northern Virginia is the world's largest data-center concentration; Virginia hosts 643 facilities (2025) and ~40% of the global market (2023). en.wikipedia.org
  5. Dominion Energy Virginia — provides electricity to more than 2.5 million homes and businesses in Virginia. www.dominionenergy.com
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration — Virginia Electricity Profile: ~102.7 million MWh net generation (2024), 10.62 cents/kWh average retail price. www.eia.gov
  7. Virginia Clean Economy Act (Wikipedia) — 2020 law; Dominion 100% carbon-free by 2045, Appalachian Power by 2050; nation's first legally binding 100% clean-energy standard. en.wikipedia.org
  8. CoastalVAWind.com (Dominion Energy) — 2.6 GW / 176 turbines, up to 660,000 homes, largest U.S. offshore wind project, ~$3B first-decade fuel savings, completion ~2027. coastalvawind.com
  9. Appalachian Power (AEP) — About: ~1.1 million customers across Virginia, West Virginia, and Tennessee; ~8,750 MW generation. www.appalachianpower.com
  10. Old Dominion Electric Cooperative (Wikipedia) — wholesale G&T serving 11 member cooperatives and nearly 1.5 million people across Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. en.wikipedia.org
  11. Dominion Energy (Wikipedia) — regulatory history: 2015 SB 1349 froze SCC base-rate reviews until 2021; 2023 SB 1265 / HB 1770 restructured rate oversight. en.wikipedia.org
  12. U.S. Department of Energy, Grid Deployment Office — GRIP program: TVA-led award of up to $250 million spanning parts of Virginia and seven other states. www.energy.gov
  13. Dominion Energy — Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind: more than 2,600 MW across three ~880 MW phases, expected to serve more than 650,000 customers. www.dominionenergy.com