Capital Program Planning for New Jersey Electric Utilities

by | Oct 21, 2026

New Jersey · Electric & Grid Utilities

New Jersey bills jumped up to 20% in one summer. The next capital plan is where that pressure gets managed.

A PJM capacity auction pushed electric bills up 17–20% on June 1, 2025, the offshore-wind program the state was counting on has largely collapsed, and data-center and electrification load keeps climbing. Each shock reshuffles the projects competing for capital. Invizion helps electric utilities re-sequence a capital portfolio in a click — and defend every decision to the BPU.

See how Invizion helps utilities See what New Jersey utilities face Download the briefing (PDF)
The bottom line: New Jersey's electric bills jumped up to 20% in a single summer on PJM capacity costs while the offshore-wind program it was banking on collapsed. With new generation stalled, the state's four utilities are pouring capital into the wires — and the ones that keep bills defensible will be those whose capital plans can re-sequence as fast as the market shifts.
17–20%1
Range of the electric-bill increase New Jersey ratepayers absorbed on June 1, 2025, driven by the PJM capacity auction.
833%2
One-year jump in PJM's capacity clearing price in the 2025/2026 auction, to $269.92/MW-day.
$24–28B3
PSEG's five-year capital investment program through 2030.
11,000 MW4
New Jersey's 2040 offshore-wind target — now far off track after the Ørsted and Shell exits.

The New Jersey Landscape

Four forces are moving your project list at once

None of these is theoretical, and none of them waits for your next budget cycle. Together they mean the capital plan you approved last year may already be the wrong plan.

Demand — Load Growth

Rising load, in a market you don't control

New Jersey sits inside PJM, whose 2026/2027 capacity auction procured 146,244 MW to meet growing demand and cleared at the FERC-approved cap of $329.17/MW-day.2 Data-center and electrification load across the PJM footprint is the driver.

It lands on New Jersey customers who already pay about 16.29 cents/kWh — the 12th-highest retail price in the nation — and on utilities that net-generate only about 60.2 million MWh in-state.5

Reliability — Capacity & Cost

The margin now shows up on the bill

PJM's 2025/2026 auction spiked 833% to $269.92/MW-day, and the 2026/2027 auction hit the $329.17 cap.2 With little in-state generation headroom, New Jersey is exposed to that market directly.5

Regulators note that without wind and solar clearing the 2024 auction, prices would have been roughly 60% higher — about $1.1 billion more a year for New Jersey ratepayers.1

Generation — The Transition

The clean pipeline the plan assumed is gone

New Jersey targets 100% clean energy by 20356 and 11,000 MW of offshore wind by 2040.4 But Ørsted canceled Ocean Wind 1 (1,100 MW) and Ocean Wind 2 in October 2023, paying a $125 million settlement,7 and Shell walked away from the 1,510 MW Atlantic Shores project in January 2025.4

The generation the state expected to add is largely off the board — and the mandate deadline has not moved with it.

Capital — Grid & Hardening

The burden shifts to the wires

PSE&G — 2.2 million electric customers across 2,600 square miles8 — anchors a PSEG capital program of $24–$28 billion through 2030, with $22.5–$25.5 billion of it regulated.3

With new generation stalled, the near-term work is transmission, distribution modernization, and storm hardening. Those obligations stack on top of an existing backlog — and something on the list has to move.

Who Runs New Jersey's Grid

Four investor-owned utilities, plus a handful of municipal systems

New Jersey's grid is carried almost entirely by four BPU-regulated investor-owned electric distribution companies, with a small number of municipally owned utilities serving individual towns. The pressures are shared; the accountability path differs.

Investor-owned utilities

Rates & capital recovery regulated by the BPU

Public Service Electric & Gas (PSE&G) ~2.2M electric customers · 2,600 sq mi8
Jersey Central Power & Light (JCP&L) FirstEnergy · central & NW New Jersey9
Atlantic City Electric (ACE) ~545,000 customers · Exelon10
Rockland Electric Company Northern NJ · Orange & Rockland / Con Edison11

PSE&G alone anchors a PSEG capital program of $24–$28 billion through 2030.3

Municipal (public power) utilities

Governed by local councils & boards, not BPU rates

Vineland Municipal Electric Utility Largest of New Jersey's municipal electric systems
Butler, Madison & Milltown Town-owned distribution utilities
Lavallette, Pemberton, Seaside Heights, South River, Park Ridge Small municipal electric systems11

Rate-Setting & Oversight

Every capital dollar has to be defensible

Whether the recovery runs through a base-rate case or an infrastructure program, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities asks the same question: why this project, why now, why at this cost?

  • NJ Board of Public Utilities (BPU) regulates rates, capital recovery, and resource planning for the state's four investor-owned electric distribution companies, and runs the annual Basic Generation Service (BGS) auctions that set supply prices.11
  • The 2025 bill spike flowed through the BGS auction from PJM's capacity market — a 17–20% increase on June 1, 2025 that the BPU could not simply disallow.1
  • Ratepayer relief, not rate denial was the state's lever: a roughly $430 million assistance package, including a universal $100 credit to about 3.9 million residential customers.2
  • New Jersey's Energy Master Plan sets the 100% clean-energy pathway that shapes every long-term resource and capital decision utilities bring to the BPU.12

Funding On The Table

The money is moving — can your plan absorb it?

New Jersey utilities have large capital budgets and federal incentives available. The constraint is readiness: which projects qualify, which are shovel-ready, and how the timing lines up.

  • PSEG regulated capital: $22.5–$25.5B through 2030 — the bulk of a $24–$28 billion five-year program, weighted toward transmission, distribution, and reliability.3
  • $430M in state ratepayer relief (2025), including $48.7 million in one-time $175 REAP credits distributed to more than 278,000 qualifying households.21
  • The value of clean supply is measurable — regulators estimate wind and solar clearing the 2024 PJM auction avoided roughly $1.1 billion a year in New Jersey capacity costs.1
  • IRA direct-pay and investment tax credits put utility-scale storage, transmission, and clean generation more within reach — but only for projects a utility can actually stand up on schedule.

Where Invizion Fits

Turn New Jersey's grid build-out into a defensible capital plan

Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization built for utilities. When load forecasts jump, a grant lands, or a retirement date moves, you don't re-plan by hand for weeks — you model it and decide with a record to stand behind.

1

Model the “what-if” before it's forced on you

A data-center interconnect, a delayed transmission line, a moved retirement date — build the scenario and see the impact on the whole portfolio, side by side with today's plan.

2

Re-sequence 500 projects in a click

When priorities move, Invizion re-orders the portfolio automatically — accelerating, stretching, or deferring projects against the constraints you set, not weeks of spreadsheet surgery.

3

Give regulators or your board a defensible record

Every prioritization and trade-off is captured. When you're asked “why this project, why now,” the answer is documented — not reconstructed after the fact.

New Jersey's Grid, In Brief

Questions New Jersey utility leaders are asking

Short, sourced answers — the same facts we dig into with utilities looking at their capital programs.

Why did New Jersey electric bills jump in 2025?
Bills rose 17–20% on June 1, 2025, depending on the utility, driven by PJM's capacity auction flowing through the state's Basic Generation Service supply price. PJM's 2025/2026 auction had spiked 833% to $269.92/MW-day, and the next auction hit the FERC cap of $329.17.12
What happened to New Jersey's offshore wind program?
The state still targets 11,000 MW of offshore wind by 2040, but Ørsted canceled Ocean Wind 1 (1,100 MW) and Ocean Wind 2 in October 2023 with a $125 million settlement, and Shell abandoned the 1,510 MW Atlantic Shores project in January 2025.47
Who regulates New Jersey's electric utilities?
The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities regulates rates, capital recovery, and resource planning for the four investor-owned electric distribution companies — PSE&G, JCP&L, Atlantic City Electric, and Rockland Electric — and runs the BGS supply auctions. A handful of municipal systems set their own rates locally.11
How much are New Jersey utilities investing in the grid?
PSEG has laid out a $24–$28 billion capital program through 2030, with $22.5–$25.5 billion of it regulated — weighted toward transmission, distribution modernization, and reliability now that new generation has stalled.3
Is New Jersey still committed to 100% clean energy?
Yes — New Jersey accelerated its 100% clean-energy target to 2035, and the Energy Master Plan remains the guiding framework, even as the offshore-wind pipeline that was meant to deliver much of it has fallen apart.612
How does Invizion help New Jersey electric utilities plan capital?
Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization for utilities. It lets you model how a PJM cost shock, a stalled offshore-wind project, or a new load cluster reshuffles your whole project list, re-sequence the portfolio automatically, and keep a defensible record of every decision for the BPU or your board.

Go Deeper

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About the Author

GB

Guy Barlow

President, Invizion

Guy Barlow leads Invizion, a capital lifecycle management platform for water and wastewater utilities. He has spent two decades at the intersection of utility capital programs, funding, and analytics, helping utilities make faster, more defensible capital decisions.

Explore Further

See how utilities keep capital plans defensible

Invizion helps utilities model, optimize, and defend their capital programs. Explore how it works, or read our latest thinking on capital planning across the utility sector.

Explore Invizion

This briefing was last reviewed September 2026.

Sources

  1. New Jersey Governor's Office — June 1, 2025 electric-bill increase of 17.23%–20.20%; wind/solar avoided ~$1.1B/yr in 2024 PJM auction; REAP $48.7M in $175 credits to 278,000+ households, 2025. nj.gov
  2. New Jersey BPU / Governor's Office — PJM 2026/2027 auction $329.17/MW-day at cap and 146,244 MW procured; prior 2025/2026 auction up 833% to $269.92; new $325 cap/$175 floor; ~$430M relief incl. $100 to 3.9M customers, 2025. nj.gov/bpu
  3. PSEG capital investment program $24–$28B through 2030 ($22.5–$25.5B regulated), via StockTitan / PSEG disclosures, 2025–2026. www.stocktitan.net
  4. Wind power in New Jersey (Wikipedia) — 11,000 MW offshore-wind goal by 2040 (raised 2022 from 7,500 MW by 2035); Atlantic Shores 1,510 MW; Shell exit Jan 2025; Ocean Wind 1 & 2 canceled Oct 31, 2023. en.wikipedia.org
  5. EIA — New Jersey State Electricity Profile 2024: average retail price 16.29 cents/kWh (12th); net generation ~60.2 million MWh; natural gas the primary source. www.eia.gov
  6. New Jersey Governor's Office — 100% clean-energy target accelerated to 2035, Feb 15, 2023. nj.gov
  7. Ocean Wind (Wikipedia) — Ocean Wind 1 = 1,100 MW; Ørsted announced cessation October 2023; $125 million settlement paid to New Jersey, 2024. en.wikipedia.org
  8. Public Service Electric and Gas Company (Wikipedia) — ~2.2 million electric and ~1.8 million gas customers across 2,600 square miles; New Jersey's largest utility. en.wikipedia.org
  9. FirstEnergy (Wikipedia) — Jersey Central Power & Light serves most of central and northwestern New Jersey; FirstEnergy serves ~6 million customers across a 65,000-square-mile territory. en.wikipedia.org
  10. Atlantic City Electric (Wikipedia) — ~545,000 electric customers in southern New Jersey; an Exelon regulated utility. en.wikipedia.org
  11. New Jersey Board of Public Utilities — state regulator overseeing PSE&G, JCP&L, Atlantic City Electric, and Rockland Electric, plus the BGS supply auctions; municipal electric systems are locally governed. www.nj.gov/bpu
  12. New Jersey Energy Master Plan — the state's pathway to 100% clean energy and framework for utility resource and capital planning. nj.gov/emp