Capital Program Planning for Texas Electric Utilities

by | Oct 21, 2026

Texas · Electric & Grid Utilities

ERCOT could hit ~150 GW by 2030 — nearly double its record peak. Your capital plan is where that gets built.

Data centers, AI, crypto, LNG, Permian electrification, and new manufacturing are stacking gigawatts onto a grid that already set an 85,931 MW record and lived through Winter Storm Uri. Each new load, loan, and reliability rule reshuffles the projects on your list. Invizion helps electric utilities re-sequence a capital portfolio in a click — and defend every decision to the PUCT, a board, or the market.

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The bottom line: ERCOT's peak could approach 150 GW by 2030 — nearly double its record — while Texas rebuilds for reliability after Uri and its wires companies commit well over $100 billion in capital. The utilities that keep the lights on will be the ones whose capital plans can re-sequence as fast as the load forecast changes.
~150 GW1
ERCOT's projected peak demand by 2030 — up from an 85,931 MW record.
85,931 MW1
ERCOT's all-time peak demand, set August 20, 2024.
$47.5B2
Oncor's base capital plan for 2026–2030.
$66.7B3
CenterPoint Energy's 10-year capital plan, 2026–2035.

The Texas Landscape

Four forces are moving your project list at once

None of these is theoretical, and none of them waits for the next legislative session or rate case. Together they mean the capital plan you approved last year may already be the wrong plan.

Demand — Load Growth

Gigawatts of new load, arriving fast

ERCOT projects peak demand could reach roughly 150 GW by 2030 — close to double its 85,931 MW record — driven by data centers and AI, crypto mining, LNG export terminals, hydrogen, and Permian Basin oil-and-gas electrification.1

The pipeline is concrete, not hypothetical: AEP Texas alone holds letters of agreement backing up to 41 GW of potential new load through 2030,4 and CenterPoint reports 12.2 GW of firmly committed industrial load in Greater Houston with roughly 8 GW of data-center load expected energized by 2029.3 Every large new customer is a capacity commitment competing for the same capital.

Reliability — Peaks & Storms

The bar was set by Uri — and the peaks keep climbing

ERCOT set an all-time peak of 85,931 MW on August 20, 2024, and manages about 90% of the state's electric load for more than 25 million customers.1

February 2021's Winter Storm Uri is the reason reliability is now a capital question: more than 4.5 million homes and businesses lost power, at least 246 people died, and damages ran to $26.5 billion or more.6 Storage is one answer — ERCOT grid batteries reached about 11 GW in 2025, up from 2 GW in 2022 — but each addition is another project on the list.1

Generation — The Transition

A mixed fleet, rebalancing on a capital clock

By 2025 Texas generated about 40.5% of its electricity from natural gas, 23.2% from wind, 13.7% from solar, 12.7% from coal, and 8.5% from nuclear.7 Texas leads the nation in wind, with more than 40,000 MW installed supplying 22.4% of ERCOT electricity in 2025,8 and is the fastest-growing solar market, at 22,872 MW of PV by 2023.9

The state is also pulling new dispatchable gas onto the grid: NRG's 415 MW T.H. Wharton plant came online under the Texas Energy Fund, with more projects in progress.5 Renewables, storage, and firm gas all land on the same capital plan at the same time.

Capital — Grid & Hardening

Build transmission and harden it, at the same time

The transmission bill is enormous. Oncor plans $47.5 billion of base capital over 2026–20302 and is responsible for most of more than $7 billion of ERCOT-endorsed transmission expected 2026–2034, much of it serving the Permian Basin and West Texas.10 AEP Texas secured a U.S. Department of Energy loan of up to $3.26 billion to rebuild and expand roughly 2,800 miles of transmission.4

Hardening stacks on top of growth: after Hurricane Beryl left about 2.2 million CenterPoint customers without power in July 2024,11 resiliency became a funded program inside a $66.7 billion capital plan.3 New obligations don't replace the backlog — they stack on it, and something has to move.

Who Runs Texas's Grid

Competitive by design: T&D wires companies, municipals, and a vast co-op footprint

Most of Texas sits inside ERCOT and its deregulated market: PUCT-regulated transmission & distribution utilities own the wires, while generation and retail are competitive. Municipal utilities and electric cooperatives govern themselves. The load pressure is shared; the accountability path differs.

Investor-owned T&D utilities

Wires & capital recovery regulated by the PUCT

Oncor Electric Delivery Largest T&D utility in Texas · north, central & west TX2
CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric Greater Houston · ~2.2M+ metered customers11
AEP Texas West & south Texas (AEP Texas North + Central)12
Texas-New Mexico Power (TNMP) Pockets of north, central, west & Gulf-coast Texas
El Paso Electric Far west Texas · outside ERCOT

Oncor and CenterPoint alone plan roughly $47.5 billion and $66.7 billion of capital over their current multi-year programs.23

Municipals & cooperatives

Governed by city councils & member boards, not PUCT rates

CPS Energy (San Antonio) Municipally owned · generation, transmission & distribution
Austin Energy City of Austin municipal utility
Pedernales Electric Cooperative Nation's largest distribution co-op · 410,000+ members13
Brazos, Bluebonnet, CoServ & others G&T and distribution co-ops statewide

ERCOT covers about 90% of Texas load for more than 25 million customers across 46,500+ miles of transmission — and co-ops carry the wires across much of rural Texas.1

Rate-Setting & Oversight

Every capital dollar has to be defensible

Whether you answer to the Public Utility Commission, a city council, or a member board, the question is the same: why this project, why now, why at this cost?

  • Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) regulates the rates and capital recovery of the transmission & distribution utilities in ERCOT's competitive market — generation and retail electric service are competitive, not rate-regulated.14
  • ERCOT runs the grid and market for about 90% of the state's load and sets the interconnection and transmission-planning process that governs when large new loads and generators can connect.1
  • The Texas Energy Fund, administered by the PUCT, provides low-interest loans for new dispatchable generation inside ERCOT — the vehicle behind projects such as NRG's 415 MW T.H. Wharton plant.5
  • Municipals and cooperatives — CPS Energy, Austin Energy, and co-ops like Pedernales — set their own rates through councils and member boards, making capital trade-offs in front of the customers who own them.13

Funding On The Table

The money is moving — can your plan absorb it?

Texas utilities have more grid and generation capital available than they've had in a generation — state loans, federal loans, and record utility capex. The constraint is readiness: which projects qualify, which are shovel-ready, and how the timing lines up.

  • Texas Energy Fund — dispatchable generation loans (PUCT). NRG's 415 MW T.H. Wharton plant came online under the program with a completion-bonus grant valued at up to $54.72 million over 10 years, with additional TEF projects on track.5
  • DOE loan up to $3.26 billion to AEP Texas to rebuild, reconductor, and build roughly 2,800 miles of transmission across west and south Texas.4
  • Oncor: $47.5B capital plan (2026–2030) plus responsibility for most of $7B+ of ERCOT-endorsed transmission through 2034, largely for the Permian Basin and West Texas.210
  • CenterPoint: $66.7B capital plan (2026–2035), with a Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative launched after Hurricane Beryl's 2.2 million-customer outage.311
  • IRA direct-pay tax credits put utility-scale solar and storage within reach for public power and cooperatives — CPS Energy, Austin Energy, and co-ops like Pedernales — that cannot use tax equity.

Where Invizion Fits

Turn Texas's grid build-out into a defensible capital plan

Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization built for utilities. When load forecasts jump, a grant lands, or a retirement date moves, you don't re-plan by hand for weeks — you model it and decide with a record to stand behind.

1

Model the “what-if” before it's forced on you

A data-center interconnect, a delayed transmission line, a moved retirement date — build the scenario and see the impact on the whole portfolio, side by side with today's plan.

2

Re-sequence 500 projects in a click

When priorities move, Invizion re-orders the portfolio automatically — accelerating, stretching, or deferring projects against the constraints you set, not weeks of spreadsheet surgery.

3

Give regulators or your board a defensible record

Every prioritization and trade-off is captured. When you're asked “why this project, why now,” the answer is documented — not reconstructed after the fact.

Texas's Grid, In Brief

Questions Texas utility leaders are asking

Short, sourced answers — the same facts we dig into with utilities looking at their capital programs.

How fast is Texas's electricity demand growing?
ERCOT projects peak demand could reach roughly 150 GW by 2030, close to double its 85,931 MW record, driven by data centers, AI, crypto, LNG, hydrogen, and Permian electrification. AEP Texas alone holds letters of agreement backing up to 41 GW of potential new load through 2030.14
What changed after Winter Storm Uri?
Uri knocked out power to more than 4.5 million homes and businesses in February 2021, killed at least 246 people, and caused $26.5 billion or more in damage — making reliability a capital priority. Since then the state stood up the Texas Energy Fund for new dispatchable generation, and ERCOT battery storage grew to about 11 GW in 2025 from 2 GW in 2022.61
Does the PUCT set my utility's rates?
The PUCT regulates the rates and capital recovery of the transmission & distribution wires companies — Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas — while generation and retail are competitive. Municipals like CPS Energy and Austin Energy and co-ops like Pedernales set their own rates through councils and member boards.1413
How much are Texas utilities spending on the grid?
Oncor plans $47.5 billion of base capital over 2026–2030 and CenterPoint $66.7 billion over 2026–2035, while AEP secured a DOE loan of up to $3.26 billion to expand about 2,800 miles of Texas transmission.234
What is the Texas Energy Fund?
It is a PUCT-administered program that provides low-interest loans to build new dispatchable (mostly natural-gas) generation inside ERCOT, created to add firm capacity after Uri. NRG's 415 MW T.H. Wharton plant is one of the first to come online under it, with a completion bonus of up to $54.72 million over 10 years.5
How does Invizion help Texas electric utilities plan capital?
Invizion is scenario-based capital portfolio optimization for utilities. It lets you model how a data-center load surge, a Texas Energy Fund or DOE loan, or a new ERCOT transmission obligation reshuffles your whole project list, re-sequence the portfolio automatically, and keep a defensible record of every decision for the PUCT, your board, or the market.

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About the Author

GB

Guy Barlow

President, Invizion

Guy Barlow leads Invizion, a capital lifecycle management platform for water and wastewater utilities. He has spent two decades at the intersection of utility capital programs, funding, and analytics, helping utilities make faster, more defensible capital decisions.

Explore Further

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Invizion helps utilities model, optimize, and defend their capital programs. Explore how it works, or read our latest thinking on capital planning across the utility sector.

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This briefing was last reviewed September 2026.

Sources

  1. Wikipedia — Electric Reliability Council of Texas: 85,931 MW record peak (Aug 20, 2024), ~150 GW forecast by 2030, ~90% of state load / 25M+ customers, 46,500+ miles of transmission, ~11 GW batteries in 2025. en.wikipedia.org
  2. Wikipedia — Oncor Electric Delivery: $47.5 billion 2026–2030 base capital plan; largest T&D utility in Texas. en.wikipedia.org
  3. StockTitan — CenterPoint Energy (CNP): $66.7 billion 2026–2035 capital plan; 12.2 GW firmly committed Greater Houston industrial load, ~8 GW data-center load by 2029; Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. www.stocktitan.net
  4. StockTitan — American Electric Power (AEP): $78B 2026–2030 capital plan; AEP Texas up to 41 GW of potential new load through 2030; DOE loan up to $3.26B for ~2,800 miles of transmission. www.stocktitan.net
  5. StockTitan — NRG Energy (NRG): 415 MW T.H. Wharton plant online under the Texas Energy Fund, completion bonus up to $54.72M over 10 years; additional TEF projects on track; 1.2 GW CCGT for a hyperscaler. www.stocktitan.net
  6. Wikipedia — 2021 Texas power crisis (Winter Storm Uri): 4.5M+ homes/businesses lost power, at least 246 deaths, $26.5B+ in damages. en.wikipedia.org
  7. Wikipedia — Energy in Texas: 2025 net generation mix — natural gas 40.5%, wind 23.2%, solar 13.7%, coal 12.7%, nuclear 8.5%; nation's largest energy producer. en.wikipedia.org
  8. Wikipedia — Wind power in Texas: #1 US wind state, 40,000+ MW installed, 22.4% of ERCOT electricity in 2025. en.wikipedia.org
  9. Wikipedia — Solar power in Texas: 22,872 MW of grid-connected PV by 2023; leads the nation in new solar installations. en.wikipedia.org
  10. StockTitan — Sempra (SRE) / Oncor: more than $7 billion of ERCOT-endorsed transmission expected 2026–2034, most built by Oncor; ~$5.9B of customer collateral for active generation and large-load interconnection requests. www.stocktitan.net
  11. Wikipedia — CenterPoint Energy: Hurricane Beryl left about 2.2 million CenterPoint customers without power in July 2024. en.wikipedia.org
  12. Wikipedia — American Electric Power / AEP Texas: AEP Texas North (west Texas) and AEP Texas Central (south Texas). en.wikipedia.org
  13. Wikipedia — Pedernales Electric Cooperative: the nation's largest distribution electric cooperative, 410,000+ members. en.wikipedia.org
  14. Wikipedia — Public Utility Commission of Texas: regulates transmission & distribution rates in the competitive ERCOT market; retail electric service is deregulated. en.wikipedia.org